Understanding Federal Statistics:
Population Estimates & Projections for the
United States

Emma Ernst

Population Estimates Branch

February 6, 2007

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Overview

• Who are we?

• What data do we produce?

• Why do we produce estimates and projections?

• How do we produce estimates and projections?

• When are the data available to the public?

• Where can you find the data?

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Who Are We?
Our State Partners

The Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) was formed in 1967. The mission of the co-op is to:

• • Promote cooperation between the states and the Census Bureau;

  • Prepare a set of consistent state, county and subcounty estimates;

  • Improve and advance estimates methodology; and

  • Enhance the recognition of local demographic work.

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What Data Do We Produce?
Estimates

• Population

  • National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin (monthly)

  • State and county totals

    • Produced in conjunction with the FSCPE

  • State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

  • County by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

  • Incorporated place and minor civil division totals

  • Commonwealth of Puerto Rico by age and sex

  • Puerto Rico municipio by age and sex

• Housing units

  • State

  • County

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What Data Do We Produce?
Projections

• Population

  • National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

  • State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

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Why Do We Produce Estimates?
Federal Mandate

The Intercensal Estimates Program is required under U.S.C. Title 13, Section 181:

“During the intervals between each census of population…the Secretary, to the extent feasible, should annually produce and publish for each State, county, and local unit of general purpose government which has a population of fifty thousand or more, current data on total population and population characteristics and, to the extent feasible, shall biennially produce and publish for other local units of general purpose government current data on total population.”

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Why Do We Produce Estimates?
Data Uses

• Allocation of over $200 billion in federal funds each year

• Controls for federal surveys

  • Current Population Survey

  • American Community Survey

  • Survey of Income and Program Participation

  • American Housing Survey

• Denominators for statistical rates

  • Birth and death rates (NCHS)

  • Per capita income (BEA)

• Program Planning

  • Location of public and private services

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Why Do We Produce Projections?
Data Uses

• Base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies

  • National Institute on Aging – projections of the elderly population for health and other planning

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics – projections of the working age population for input to labor force projections

  • National Cancer Institute – projections of deaths as input to projections of future cancer incidence

  • Department of Education – projections of school age populations for input to school enrollment projections

• Public and private program planning

  • Future need for resources and services

• Academic research

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How Do We Produce Estimates?

National level:

Cohort-component method

P2 = P1 + B - D + NM (International Migration)

State and county level:

Component of change method

P2 = P1 + B - D + NM

(controlled to the national estimates)

Subcounty level:

Distributive housing unit method

County population is distributed to subcounty parts based on updated estimates of housing

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How Do We Produce Projections?

National level:

Cohort-component method

- Components of population change (fertility, mortality, and net migration) are projected separately for each birth cohort

- Base population is advanced each year by using projected survival rates and net international migration

- Time series analysis of components

State level:

Cohort component method

- Controlled to the national projections

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When Are The Data Available to The Public?

Estimates (for July 2006)

• • Dec. 2006 National and state (including Puerto Rico) totals

  • January 2007 State 18+

  • March 2007 County totals

Puerto Rico Municipio totals

• • April 2007 National and State demographic detail

  • June 2007 Subcounty totals

  • July 2007 County demographic detail

  • August 2007 State and county housing units

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When are the data available to the public?

Projections

• • 2005 Revised National/State Totals with Census 2000 race definitions

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Where Can You Find the Data?

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Where Can You Find the Data?
Estimates

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Where Can You Find the Data?
Estimates (cont.)

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Where Can You Find the Data?
Projections

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Where can you find the data?

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Where Can You Find the Data?
Exercises

• Estimates

  • What is the current population estimate of the US?

  • Where can you find national population estimates by race?

  • What is the most recent population estimate for your state?

  • Where can you find historical state estimates?

  • What is the most recent population estimate for Prince Georges County, Maryland?

  • What is the most recent population estimate for your city?

• Projections

  • What is the population of the nation projected to be in 2050?

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Contact Information

Estimates:

Emma.r.ernst@census.gov